The short answer is: it depends on where you’re looking—and which kind of crisis you mean (e.g., housing crash, affordability collapse, climate-induced corrections). Let’s break it down by region and risk factor.
Global & Regional Outlooks
United States — Cooling, Not Crashing
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Most forecasters anticipate a moderate slowdown rather than a crash in the U.S. housing market for 2025. Home price growth is expected to hover around +3% to 5%, with no sharp decline like in 2008.
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Mortgage rates remain elevated, largely in the 6–7% range, which saps affordability and tempers buyer demand.
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Foreclosure rates are low, and lending standards remain tight—unlike the conditions that precipitated the 2008 crash.
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Some hope hinges on improving economic indicators and inflation control—if inflation heads back toward 2–2.5% and mortgage rates dip into the mid-5s, that could support a soft landing .
China — Ongoing Crisis
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China’s real estate market remains in distress, now in its fourth year of downturn. Goldman Sachs warns of another possible 10% drop in home prices before any stabilization around 2027 .
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Many developers, including Evergrande, remain heavily indebted, with numerous defaults. A mortgage boycott movement underscores broader buyer discontent .
Europe — Housing Affordability Under Strain
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Across Europe, housing costs are rising as private equity and institutional investors increasingly dominate the market, reducing supply and raising rents—even amid political and social resistance.
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In the UK, home prices fell in August 2025 (–1.3% month-over-month), but this aligns with seasonal expectations. Forecasts now suggest only 1–2% growth through the year amid economic uncertainty.
Climate Risks — The Hidden Threat
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A new wave of risk comes from climate-related threats. In the U.S., rising insurance costs or outright withdrawal by insurers in high-risk areas (e.g., Florida, California) are already pushing property values downward.
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David Burt warns that 18 million homes in the U.S. could decline by 20–40% over the next 5–6 years due to these issues.
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Financial experts echo this risk, noting that climate perils—wildfires, floods, storms—could trigger instability in mortgage and insurance markets big enough to threaten a systemic crisis.
Australia — Affordability Exodus
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Sydney’s median home price is projected to climb to A$1.83 million, while Melbourne rises to A$1.1 million. Many families are moving out of urban centers because housing has become unaffordable.
Social Housing Shortages — UK Example
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In England, the “Right to Buy” scheme is reducing public housing faster than it’s being rebuilt—18,500 council homes slated to be sold, versus just 2,260 built in 2024–25. This fuels further housing insecurity and shifts people into costly private rentals
Summary Table
| Region / Factor | Outlook Summary |
|---|---|
| U.S. (mainstream market) | Stable to slight growth; no major crash forecast, but affordability remains tight |
| China | Deep crisis; more price drops possible before bottoming out (~2027) |
| Europe | Growing affordability crisis; investor ownership and pricing burdens rising |
| U.K. | Modest price declines; cautious outlook with potential low growth |
| Climate Risk (U.S.) | Emerging systemic threat—insurance market could destabilize valuations |
| Australia (Sydney/Melbourne) | Prices skyrocketing; families relocating due to unaffordability |
| UK Social Housing | Rapid loss of affordable public housing worsening insecurity |
Is a Crisis Ahead?
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In the U.S., while there’s no imminent crash sign, the combination of high rates, low inventory, and climate risk suggests uneven, localized vulnerabilities, especially in exposed regions.
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Globally, some markets are teetering. China remains fragile, Europe faces structural affordability strains, and environmental factors loom large—raising the possibility of a non-traditional, climate-driven real estate crisis.